Advisory Concerning the Chicago Police Department’s Predictive Risk Models

Executive Summary

The Office of Inspector General (OIG) conducted a review of the Chicago Police Department’s (CPD or the “Department”) risk models known as the Strategic Subject List (SSL) and Crime and Victimization Risk Model (CVRM). CPD received $3.8 million in federal grants to develop these models, which were designed to predict the likelihood an individual would become a “party to violence” (PTV), i.e. the victim or offender in a shooting. The results of SSL were known as “risk scores” while CVRM produced “risk tiers.” In August 2019, CPD informed OIG that it intended to decommission its PTV risk model program and did so on November 1, 2019 (although the grant period ended on September 30, 2019). The purpose of this advisory is to assess lessons learned and provide recommendations for future implementation of PTV risk models.